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stoutfellowWell, November's here, and it's definitely novembing. Thursday was cool but comfortable - long-sleeved shirt and windbreaker weather - but we had a freeze warning that night, and Friday never got out of the 40s F - time for the heavy jacket. Not a lot of trick-or-treaters last night.
The semester has about a month and a half to go. (Formally, there are four weeks of classes left, and then finals week, but the Thanksgiving break week also slots in there, so it's six weeks.) It's felt much longer than that.
And, of course, Tuesday is Election Day, and it's not looking good for Team Blue at the congressional level. Even Sam Wang, who was bullish on the Democrats for most of the summer, gives them only a 40% chance of holding the Senate. (He does point out that anything between 40% and 60%, on a one-shot event, is pretty much a tossup, but still, 40%.) The outlook is somewhat better for governorships; they'll probably pick up Pennsylvania, and have pretty good shots at Maine, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll probably lose Arkansas, and Massachusetts and Connecticut are up for grabs, but all in all it looks like a wash at worst and a net pickup of three or four at best. And if the Republicans do grab the Senate, they'll very likely lose it again in '16, when the 2010 rookies come up for re-election. I count six vulnerable GOP senators: Rubio (FL), Kirk (IL), Ayotte (NH), Portman (OH), Toomey (PA), and Johnson (WI); and if Grassley (IA) or McCain (AZ) decide to retire, which they very well might, those two seats are also possibilities. Blunt (MO) and Burr (NC) are probably safe, but under the right circumstances they could go down too.
Yes, I'm steeling myself and reaching for long-term consolations.
The semester has about a month and a half to go. (Formally, there are four weeks of classes left, and then finals week, but the Thanksgiving break week also slots in there, so it's six weeks.) It's felt much longer than that.
And, of course, Tuesday is Election Day, and it's not looking good for Team Blue at the congressional level. Even Sam Wang, who was bullish on the Democrats for most of the summer, gives them only a 40% chance of holding the Senate. (He does point out that anything between 40% and 60%, on a one-shot event, is pretty much a tossup, but still, 40%.) The outlook is somewhat better for governorships; they'll probably pick up Pennsylvania, and have pretty good shots at Maine, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll probably lose Arkansas, and Massachusetts and Connecticut are up for grabs, but all in all it looks like a wash at worst and a net pickup of three or four at best. And if the Republicans do grab the Senate, they'll very likely lose it again in '16, when the 2010 rookies come up for re-election. I count six vulnerable GOP senators: Rubio (FL), Kirk (IL), Ayotte (NH), Portman (OH), Toomey (PA), and Johnson (WI); and if Grassley (IA) or McCain (AZ) decide to retire, which they very well might, those two seats are also possibilities. Blunt (MO) and Burr (NC) are probably safe, but under the right circumstances they could go down too.
Yes, I'm steeling myself and reaching for long-term consolations.
no subject
Date: 2014-11-01 06:10 pm (UTC)The rainy season switch here has flipped with a vengeance (it's always a very gradual transition in the spring, but in the fall, it's just like turning the lights off).